The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. google_color_link = "0000FF"; In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites His freelance For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. Detailed Map of Powell "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. %%EOF To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. This is the big warning bell.. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). monthly forecasts become more accurate. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. google_ad_width = 160; Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. google_color_text = "000000"; But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. . According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. //2006-10-04: news For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. 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