JOHN DANKOSKY: Luke Runyon is a reporter based at KUNC in Fort Collins, Colorado. A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. If the lakes levels drop below 3,490, Hawes added, the Bureau of Reclamation will have to run water through a series of river outlet tubes, the lowest delivery mechanism in the lake, for the first time since the 1980s, and bureau officials dont actually know if they can handle that much water, she said. The Glen Canyon Dam forms Lake Powell and the Hoover Dam forms Lake Mead. Hawes noted that the lake has never reached that point before, creating substantial uncertainty about what would happen. The nations second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. That leaves a sizable deficit and little time to turn things around. In the desert of California lies another manmade lake condemned to death, the Salton Sea. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, and this is a question that has been of intense interest to climate scientists. Lake Mead the largest reservoir in the Colorado River Basin is losing water at record speeds, dropping . Lake Powell, the country's second-largest reservoir and a key source of water and power for much of the West, is more parched than ever.Earlier this month, the lake dropped below 25% capacity . Lake Powell upstream of Lake Mead on the Colorado River is at its lowest level on record. This drought will only be exacerbated by climate change, as the increased global temperatures are expected to increase the severity of drought weather and frequencies of wildfires, as well as influencing a vast range of other extreme weather events. This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management. New York, NY 10004. The Glen Canyon Dam, D'deest'in Htsaa, marks where the water level in Lake Powell on the Colorado River, reaches. Back-to-back dry years years with below-average runoff have left little water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, a reservoir upstream. John Dankosky works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. Riparian rights do not entitle a water use to divert water to storage in a reservoir for use in the dry season or to use water on . Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. Asthe latest round of federal forecastsfor the rivers flow shows, its plausible, maybe even likely, that the situation could get much worse this year. Meanwhile, Lake Powells projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. Udall questioned the validity of using the years before 2000 because the years 1990 to 1999 were very wet and not representative of the weather we see now. If the reservoirs reach dead-pool levels, more than a million people using the electricity could be required to find new power sources. The regions been looking warily at the reservoirs along this long river that winds its way from Colorados Rocky Mountains all the way to Mexico, just shy of the Gulf of California. Given todays changing climate, led by continued warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, any knowledge we have of the past that historically would help us make predictions does not help us any more, Udall said. The basin is made up of portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? ET: The dead pool level of Lake Powell has been corrected. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? People are having to do things that you dont necessarily see, but we have water being hauled for livestock, water being hauled in for wildlife, Selover said. The water level decline . The Colorado River basin has experienced three D4 droughts in the last 20 years, including the current one. Luke covers the Colorado River basin. The river is a lifeline, providing water to more than . What would constitute that? Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. This cookie is native to PHP applications. And thats because some of these past agreements have put that state in the most vulnerable position for cutbacks. Thanks so much for joining us. YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. Thats important for the entire region, Fleck said, because the backdrop of an impending crisis will set the tone for those negotiations. And that group includes the Navajo Nation, the Southern Ute tribe, the Quechan Indian tribe. The water level on Lake Powell is 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013. The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. Lake Powell (credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) The power pool mark is 3,490 feet of elevation. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. And its split into two watersheds. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The big question is how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed a growing region. The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. The dry years are what force the really important steps forward in the policy community.. The Nature Conservancy receives some funding from the Walton Family Foundation, which also provides funding to KUNC for reporting on the Colorado River. It is not creating certainty in the water market, Mankin said. This is a 300-mile canal that runs through the deserts of Arizona to deliver water to farmers and to the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. The dropping water levels are indicated by white marks on the canyon wall, often likened to a bathtub ring. Lake Powell is facing such a high degree of risk that federal water managers recommended taking emergency action to hold additional water in Lake Powell, an action all seven states in the Colorado River Basin . These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously. Its also in the groundwater, something that you cant see. LUKE RUNYON: So seven US states make up the Colorado River basin. The vast stripe rimming Powell is a testament to how far its level has dropped since 2000, when the Colorado's flows began a steady decline in response to persistent drought, warming temperatures. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. The loss of generation from the lake would deprive the grid of about a quarter million households worth of power. . Down the Colorado River lies Lake Mead, which is also seeing lower water levels than ever before. And data updated Monday from the California Department of Water Resources' tracker show the reservoir climbing to 60%, still below historical levels for February 72% but significantly higher than it had been. NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads. Lake Powell generates power for about 5.8 million households and businesses in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. Is this as bad as climate change is going to get in shrinking the snowpacks in the headwaters? This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years.. Even if nothing is done, he believes the risk quite low. a study published in the journal Science said the current dry period in the Southwest is one for the record books, and that its "megadrought-like trajectory" is fueled by natural variability superimposed on . Lake Oroville, a key component of California's water supply, also benefited from the early-winter storms, as . For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. A drastic drought could bring shortages of one to 1.5 million acre feet, he said. Complicating matters are the ongoing talks on allocation between the seven states on the Colorado River, the source of the lakes waters. Overall, the river's flowis down 20% in this century relative to the 20th century. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. And you know, those are cutbacks that users are actually going to feel and that municipal leaders, farmers, tribal users in Arizona are having to plan for right now. First of all Lake Powell is not gonna dry up. Its companion reservoir, Lake Mead, is at levels almost as low. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. In addition, the river itself experiences more evaporation. LUKE RUNYON: Well, I dont have a crystal ball. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. At 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits. The third would transfer some water stored in the smaller Upper Basin reservoirs to Lake Powell. The shoreline it creates, in a red rock desert, is longer than the entire U.S. West Coast.. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. And it would increase the likelihood of cutbacks in river water deliveries to Arizona, in particular. "Based on the best climate data that's available, it's really unlikely that this reservoir is going to be around in the decades to come," Eric Balken of the Glen Canyon Institute told 12News. It stores water as part of the Colorado River Compact and produceselectricity through the hydroelectric turbines in Glen Canyon dam. Many of the. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. In the second stage of Fill Mead First, the reservoir's level would near 3,374 feet, near the river outlet works. Experts say that the reservoir may dry up completely in a few decades. Without wet hydrology to replenish the reservoirs, the basin finds itself in an all but certain shortage condition for the first time." . Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. And thats really what were watching right now, is how low is Lake Mead going to go? Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features. If the water levels drop to levels below the intake pipes, the water flow will cease to turn the hydroelectric turbines, and the dam won't generate any power. However, the receding water levels have already greatly reduced the reservoirs generating capacity, to about 800 megawattsabout 60 percent. Luke, well continue to follow your reporting. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. The wells that now supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under the surface. Lake Powell hasn't been this low since June of 1965, just two years after it began to fill with water. Tony graduated from Northwestern University and started at the Star in 1997. We don't know if the dam will operate as expected. It took 16 years for it to fill. LinkedIn sets this cookie from LinkedIn share buttons and ad tags to recognize browser ID. Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide. This cookie is used for storing country code selected from country selector. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. If that does come to pass, Tyrell said he is fairly confident we can deal with worst case scenario if it ever happens.. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. That is incorrect. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. Drought contingency plans for the Upper and Lower Basin are now in use. The second largest reservoir in the U.S. by total capacity after Lake Mead, Lake Powell spans the Utah/Arizona border, and is an artificial lake created from damming the Colorado River. 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